A single espresso has about 63 mg of caffeine and a mug of filter coffee about 95, so the mug has half as much again.
A shot is 30 mL and a mug is 240 mL: the espresso has about 2.1 mg of caffeine per millilitre and the filter coffee about 0.4, so espresso is stronger by volume but a much smaller drink.
Brewing varies: a mug of filter coffee runs from about 95 to 200 mg depending on the beans, the grind and the brew, and a double espresso, at 126 mg, has more than a mug of the weaker kind.
Estimate with the rule, then check it against the calculator that models it properly.
Open Caffeine Curve →